What are the 2050 Carbon Neutrality Scenarios?
2050 Carbon Neutrality Scenarios represent the future of our society and the outlook of transition by sector when carbon neutrality is achieved in 2050. These scenarios can serve as a compass to establish the directions of detailed policies, transition speeds, etc.
2050 Carbon Neutrality Scenarios
There are two scenarios, both of which aim at net-zero domestic GHG emissions. While Scenario A entails the complete elimination of thermal power generation, Scenario B actively utilizes various technologies, such as CCUS, instead of the existing thermal power generation. The emission goals by sector are summarized in the table below. See the attached scenarios for reduction strategies by sector as well as the details of the policy proposals.
Based on the IPCC Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5℃, under the premise that all countries achieve carbon neutrality by 2050, assuming that there are no overseas reductions by 2050.
2050 Carbon Neutrality Scenarios
Type | Sector | 2018 | Final | Remarks | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Scenario A | Scenario B | ||||
Emission Amount | 686.3 | 0 | 0 | ||
Emissions | Energy Transformation | 269.6 | 0 | 20.7 |
|
Industries | 260.5 | 51.1 | 51.1 | ||
Buildings | 52.1 | 6.2 | 6.2 | ||
Transportation | 98.1 | 2.8 | 9.2 |
|
|
Agriculture, Livestock, and Fisheries | 24.7 | 15.4 | 15.4 | ||
Waste | 17.1 | 4.4 | 4.4 | ||
Hydrogen | - | 0 | 9 |
|
|
Omissions | 5.6 | 0.5 | 1.3 | ||
Absorption and Removal | Carbon Sinks | -41.3 | -25.3 | -25.3 | |
Carbon Capture, Use, and Storage (CCUS) | - | -55.1 | -84.6 | ||
Direct Air Capture (DAC) | - | - | -7.4 |
|
Procedure & Progress
-
Preparation of basic data for the
2050 Carbon Neutrality Scenario
Technical Working Group10 Sub-commisisons and 72 experts
(mainly consisting of personnel from
government-run research institutes)
participated in predicting the potential
GHG emissions. -
Launching of the 2050 Carbon
Neutrality Commission (May 2021)The 2050 Carbon Neutrality Commission is
composed of experts from different
sectors, specializing in areas related to
the climate, energy, industry, labor,
economy, conflict management,
education, and communications, as well
as the civil society, youth, workers,
farmers, and local governments. -
Revision of the Scenarios and
Release of Drafts (August 2021)Reviewed the draft net-zero Scenarios,
prepared by the Technical Working
Group. -
Operated Citizens’ Coucil on
Carbon NeutralityHeld meetings and collected opinions
from citizens and various sectors for two
months. -
Operated Citizens’ Coucil on
Carbon NeutralitySelected 500 random people consisting
of men and women aged 15 and over to
organize the Citizens’ Coucil on Carbon
Neutrality and collected opinions
through Council meetings. -
Announcement of Scenarios
(October 2021)Deliberated and determined at a cabinet
meeting .